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Intelligence Analysis through Fiction

Excerpt of cover for the
novel, The Spike (1980).
Fiction is a perfect venue for intelligence analysis and even forecasting future events and possibilities. This might seem odd at first, but when you think about it, it makes sense. The Spike by Arnaud de Borchgrave and Robert Moss demonstrates this.

World Tribune reprinted a 1980 article on the novel in 2015.

WASHINGTON — Would anyone be interested in reading a non-fiction report about how the “Disinformation” directorate of the Soviet KGB influences America’s media, top government officials and even White House policy using a network of radical U.S. think tanks? 
Arnaud de Borchgrave and Robert Moss wisely decided that no, a straight article or book on the subject would be neither widely received nor believed. Instead, they produced a novel, “The Spike,” that has remained on the best-seller lists and has sold 158,000 copies in hardback since being published by Crown this spring.

The article then quotes de Borcgrave explaining how nonfiction writings on important topics may not capture the attention of the public.

Peter Baestrup’s “brilliant retrospective on the Vietnam War coverage . . . was read by 10,000 people in this country. I doubt even that,” explained de Borchgrave in a telephone interview. “But we decided from the very beginning to do it as a political thriller, to use that as a vehicle to inform on a very little know but tremendously important aspect of Soviet intelligence operations — particularly those directed against the Western media — which is one of the five principal directorates of the KGB.”

The primary purpose of my original fiction is to entertain readers. But at times, it may contain some intelligence analysis and forecasting as well.

For instance, check out the in-progress, serialized story, Mortal Gods: “HVT.” Even as it isn’t predicting any specific future possibilities or events, there are elements within the story that should stimulate thought on future military concepts and capabilities.

I hope you enjoy Mortal Gods: “HVT” and my other stories. But when applicable, I hope they also provide you with a bit of intelligence analysis and forecasting as well.